Ukraine is preparing to become the largest construction site in Europe after the end of the war, and this especially applies to the reconstruction of its struggling aviation industry. After years of closed skies and destroyed infrastructure, a comprehensive modernization of airports and the re-establishment of commercial flights is being planned. European low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and Wizz Air are already preparing plans for a rapid return as soon as conditions permit, convinced that the Ukrainian market will experience a boom. Below is an overview of what post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s air transport might look like, and what steps airlines, the Ukrainian government, and EU regulators are taking to make it possible.

Ukraine as a Key Hub and the Largest Construction Site in Europe

Ukraine is already being called “the largest construction site in Europe,” implying investments of hundreds of billions of euros in infrastructure reconstruction after the war. A special focus is on rebuilding and expanding airports, as air transport is expected to play a vital role in post-war recovery. Ukraine’s largest airport, Boryspil near Kyiv, has already signed a partnership with the global engineering firm AECOM for the reconstruction and modernization of its facilities. This memorandum of cooperation is part of a broader state plan to rebuild national airports and the aviation industry under the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine. In practice, this means that with the help of international experts, runways, terminals, and supporting infrastructure will be rebuilt and raised to modern European standards.

The importance of these projects goes beyond simply returning to the previous state. Even before the war, Kyiv had the ambition for Boryspil to grow into a regional hub connecting Eastern Europe with the Caucasus and Central Asia. That vision now gains a new dimension: with massive reconstruction, Ukraine wants to strategically redesign its airport system and adapt it to the new geopolitics and flight routes. Even during the war, investments were made in maintaining and improving key infrastructure — Boryspil managed to preserve the operational readiness of its runways and equipment, and continued with plans to expand Terminal D, which by 2028 is expected to handle 10 million passengers annually. According to pre-war development plans, total passenger traffic in Ukraine could reach around 27.7 million annually by 2030, and up to 54 million by 2045. These figures testify to the scale of ambition — Ukraine does not see post-war reconstruction as a return to the past, but as an opportunity to build a modern European aviation hub.

Such optimism is shared by European carriers. The CEO of the British airline easyJet, Kenton Jarvis, stated that Ukraine will become “the largest construction site in Europe,” stressing that people will want to return home once that home becomes safe. In other words, massive post-war reconstruction will attract not only investors and builders, but also the return of millions of displaced Ukrainians, making the country one of the busiest hubs in Europe.

A Sharp Rise in Passenger Numbers and Flights After the War

All forecasts point to an explosive increase in air traffic as soon as peace is secured. For illustration, in the record year 2019, nearly 15 million passengers passed through Ukrainian airports. The number fell to zero with the closure of the skies in February 2022, but experts believe traffic will quickly return to those levels and then surpass pre-pandemic records. According to one projection, previously launched capacity expansion projects (such as Boryspil) were planned to handle nearly 28 million passengers annually by 2030, which implies a doubling of pre-war traffic. Although the war temporarily halted these trends, the potential for rapid recovery is enormous.

Several reasons stand behind this optimism. First, millions of Ukrainian citizens who found refuge abroad are eagerly waiting to return home once it becomes safe. Second, a large influx of foreign experts, investors, and workers involved in reconstruction is expected. Third, the phenomenon of so-called “disaster tourism” is not being overlooked — visitors from Europe and around the world who would come to see the post-war landscape. József Váradi, the CEO of Wizz Air, predicted exactly such a wave: in addition to the return of residents and construction crews, tourists will appear who want to witness post-war Ukraine with their own eyes.

Pre-war statistical data further reinforce the growth projections. In 2021 — the last full year before the invasion — around 10.8 million passengers travelled to or from Ukraine by air, despite only partial recovery from the pandemic. Analysts believe that such traffic levels could be reached and surpassed already in the first post-war years, as air transport will be the backbone of connecting Ukraine with Europe and the world during reconstruction. Michael O’Leary, the CEO of Ryanair, describes that there is enormous interest in flights to Ukraine as soon as conditions allow — according to him, immediately after the war there will be “a huge wave of traffic from day one” due to family reunifications and the mass arrival of investors rebuilding the economy. In other words, millions of passenger movements are expected within the first months of peace, accelerating the return of airlines to Ukrainian skies.

Return of Airlines: Plans of Ryanair and Wizz Air

The main drivers of the post-war aviation boom will be European low-cost carriers, which have already prepared strategies for rapid return to the Ukrainian market. Hungarian Wizz Air and Irish Ryanair, which before the war transported a large share of passengers to Ukraine, intend to take leading positions once the skies reopen.

Wizz Air has announced an ambitious expansion plan: within two years of the peace settlement, it intends to base 15 of its aircraft in Ukraine, and within seven years to increase the number to 50. This effectively means launching dozens of new routes and thousands of weekly seats for passengers. Váradi stresses that the company is thoroughly prepared — “as soon as Ukrainian airspace opens, we will re-establish ourselves very quickly,” he said, adding that the restart of flights will be a huge business opportunity. Wizz Air already had a strong presence in Ukraine before the war, and the post-war market is seen as one of the key growth areas in Europe.

Ryanair is no less enthusiastic. In fact, Michael O’Leary is determined for Ryanair to be “the first airline to return to Ukraine” as soon as conditions allow. According to company statements, Ryanair plans to resume flights within only a few weeks of a peace agreement or ceasefire. Its internal plan envisages launching around 24 to 25 routes to Kyiv and Lviv within six weeks of reopening the skies. O’Leary emphasizes that the airports in Kyiv and Lviv are already “ready for take-off” — infrastructure such as baggage belts is being regularly checked and maintained despite being closed to traffic. On the other hand, some airports in the south and east, such as Odesa or Kherson, have suffered heavier damage and will take longer to reopen. Ryanair will therefore initially focus on routes to western and central Ukraine.

Before the war, Ryanair carried around 1.5 million passengers annually on routes to Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa. Now it aims to multiply that number — the development plan envisions growth to four million passengers annually as soon as possible, significantly surpassing pre-war levels. The company is preparing to take advantage of the expected surge in demand: O’Leary notes that during his visit to Ukraine he felt tremendous enthusiasm about the return of flights and that Ryanair will be “at the center of events” when the mass movement of people and capital begins. His vision also includes redirecting aircraft from other European bases (such as London Stansted or Paris Orly) to Ukrainian destinations to quickly establish a dense network of flights.

In addition to Wizz Air and Ryanair, other airlines are showing interest. British easyJet has not flown to Ukraine before, but is considering opening routes once conditions allow. Similarly, Polish LOT, Turkish Airlines, and other regional carriers have announced they will return once security conditions permit. Of course, Ukrainian carriers will also play an important role — companies like Ukraine International Airlines and others will, with state support, seek to rebuild their fleets and routes. Competition among carriers suggests that passengers will have access to a wide selection of flights at affordable prices, further encouraging a rapid recovery of air transport.

The Role of EU Regulations and the Ukrainian Government in Reconstruction

For these ambitious plans to materialize, it is essential to secure approval from international regulators and ensure safe conditions for flying. Ukrainian airspace has officially been closed to civilian flights since 24 February 2022, when a NOTAM was issued suspending traffic due to war risks. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a conflict zone warning the same day, effectively declaring a no-fly regime over all of Ukraine. It is clear that without changes to these safety assessments, aircraft will not return to the skies. The European Commission has repeatedly emphasized that safety and security come first and that “any decision to adjust existing restrictions on civil air transport between the EU and Ukraine will depend on a comprehensive and positive assessment of security risks.” In practice, this means that international authorities will only allow the re-establishment of commercial flights once they are convinced that the risk of military threats has been minimized. Michael O’Leary explained vividly that EASA will require at least a ceasefire or another reliable guarantee that “no rockets will be falling” before it authorizes flights in Ukrainian airspace.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government is proactively preparing for that moment. Even during the war, close cooperation was established with international aviation authorities — Ukrainian officials are in constant contact with the European Commission, EASA, and the U.S. FAA to coordinate plans for the gradual and safe reopening of airports. In January 2024, Ukrainian representatives at the World Economic Forum in Davos revealed that intensive work is underway on restoring air connectivity, with an internal timetable and consultations with partners such as Israel, which has experience operating flights under risk. Innovative insurance solutions are also being considered: a special aviation-risk insurance fund with state and international reinsurance support, modeled after the mechanism used to insure maritime transport through the Black Sea war zone. This would give airlines and airports financial security to resume operations as soon as safety conditions allow.

On the infrastructural side, the Ukrainian government has already engaged international financial institutions to plan airport reconstruction. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) have launched a study on involving the private sector in airport reconstruction and management, whose results are being used to develop the aviation strategy until 2030. Priority will be given to the busiest hubs — Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa — with possible public–private partnerships for accelerated modernization. Ukraine signed the Common Aviation Area Agreement with the EU in 2021, committing to adopt European aviation standards, which now simplifies regulatory alignment during reconstruction. As a result, rebuilt infrastructure and operations will be fully integrated into the European aviation system.

While the end of the war is awaited, authorities are not standing still — airport and aviation personnel are being kept ready. For example, in 2024 alone more than 2,700 Ukrainian aviation professionals (pilots, air traffic controllers, technicians, etc.) underwent additional training, certifications, or requalification. Training programs are held according to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards, and annual testing of security personnel is conducted. This creates a pool of trained personnel who will be ready to launch full operations in a short time once conditions for flying are met. In addition, IT solutions, procedures, and protocols are already being planned to enable efficient handling of a sudden surge in traffic.

A New Aviation Era for Post-War Ukraine

Post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s aviation industry will have far-reaching effects on European air transport. With massive investment in infrastructure and the return of leading airlines, Ukraine is expected to become a new key aviation center in Eastern Europe. Millions of passengers will be able to connect with Ukraine faster and easier than ever, whether they come to return home, invest, or for tourism. At the same time, a huge new market will open for European airlines, while EU regulators, through partnership with Ukraine, will help strengthen safety and integration standards. After years of darkness over Ukraine’s skies, a new dawn is emerging in which modern airports and crowded terminals could become symbols of the country’s recovery. With the revival of its aviation industry, Ukraine is ready to take off on the path toward sustainable post-war development — as the largest construction site and one of Europe’s busiest air crossroads.

/ / /

"Standard Prva" LLC Bijeljina is a company registered in Bijeljina at the District Commercial Court in Bijeljina. Company’s activities are accountancy, repurchases of receivables, angel investing and other related services. Distressed debt is a part of the Group within which the company repurchases the receivables, which function and are not returned regularly.

Lawyer’s Office Stevanović is the leading lawyer’s office in the region with the seat in Bijeljina. The LO abbreviation represents Lawyer’s Office of Vesna Stevanović and Lawyer’s Office of Miloš Stevanović.

Contact for media press@advokati-stevanovic.com or via telephone 00 387 55 230 000 or 00387 55 22 4444.