By Miloš Stevanović, Attorney-at-Law

Over the past months, the global economy has closely monitored developments in relations between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Following months of tensions, military confrontations, sanctions, and serious disruptions to international trade, it has been announced that the two countries have reached a framework agreement that includes a cessation of hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, and the continuation of political negotiations on outstanding issues.

Although the details of the agreement have not yet been fully disclosed, it is already clear that this represents one of the most significant geopolitical developments of recent years.

Why Is the Strait of Hormuz So Important?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical maritime chokepoints in the world. A substantial portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes through this narrow waterway. Whenever there was a threat of its closure, markets reacted with rising energy prices, higher transportation costs, and increased inflation expectations worldwide.

The agreement between the United States and Iran provides for the restoration of unrestricted navigation through the strait, which investors view as the first step toward stabilizing global energy markets.

Initial Market Reaction: Optimism

Financial markets responded almost immediately. U.S. stock markets recorded significant gains following the announcement, while oil prices began to decline amid expectations that the risk of disruptions to energy supplies would decrease.

In recent months, investors had incorporated a so-called “geopolitical risk premium” into the pricing of stocks, bonds, and energy commodities. As the likelihood of conflict diminishes, this premium begins to disappear, positively affecting financial markets.

What Does the Agreement Mean for Europe?

The European Union has been struggling for several years with slow economic growth, high energy costs, and reduced industrial competitiveness.

If the agreement is successfully implemented, European companies could benefit through:

• More stable energy prices,

• Lower transportation costs,

• More secure global supply chains,

• Reduced inflationary pressures.

Energy-intensive sectors such as the chemical, metals, and automotive industries would be among the primary beneficiaries.

Could Sanctions on Iran Be Lifted?

One of the most important questions concerns the possible easing or gradual removal of certain U.S. sanctions against Iran. According to available information, sanctions remain one of the key issues under negotiation.

If Iran gains broader access to international capital and energy markets, its oil exports could increase significantly, further stabilizing global energy markets and putting downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, the opening of the Iranian market could create new opportunities for international investors, the construction industry, telecommunications, energy companies, and financial institutions.

Has the Danger Completely Passed?

No.

Despite the optimism, many unresolved issues remain. The status of Iran’s nuclear program, the scope of future sanctions, regional conflicts, and relations with other Middle Eastern countries continue to represent potential sources of instability.

Many analysts warn that the current agreement is primarily a framework for continued negotiations rather than a final resolution of all disputed issues.

An additional challenge is that certain regional actors are not formal parties to the agreement, meaning that new political and security tensions remain possible.

What Does This Mean for Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Although Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a direct participant in these developments, its economy is highly sensitive to global movements in energy and transportation costs.

The stabilization of oil markets could:

• Reduce fuel costs,

• Facilitate business operations in the transport sector,

• Positively influence inflation,

• Increase investment activity in Europe, which indirectly affects the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

For domestic companies engaged in international business, any geopolitical stabilization is a positive signal, as it reduces uncertainty and facilitates long-term planning.

Conclusion

The agreement between the United States and Iran represents one of the most significant international developments of 2026. If successfully implemented, it could contribute to the stabilization of energy markets, a reduction in geopolitical risks, stronger international trade, and a more favorable global investment environment.

However, experience in international relations demonstrates that signing an agreement is only the beginning. The real test will be its implementation in the months ahead.

Stevanović Law Office will continue to monitor international political and economic developments that may affect the operations of businesses in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider region.