Written by: Miloš Stevanović, attorney-at-law

The beginning of the open conflict with Iran caused major disruptions in global financial markets, but no asset reacted as quickly and as symbolically as gold. Within just a few days after the first serious military escalations, the price of gold began rising almost reflexively, once again confirming its status as the ultimate “safe haven” during periods of geopolitical instability. However, behind the increase in price itself lies a much more complex story — one involving fear, capital redistribution, unusual central bank interventions, and certain market anomalies that have raised serious concerns among some investors.

Immediately before the escalation of the conflict and the intensification of military tensions between Iran and the West, the price of gold on international markets ranged approximately between 2,150 and 2,250 US dollars per ounce. Following the first major geopolitical shocks, the market reacted extremely aggressively, and the price of gold broke historical records, at certain moments reaching levels between 3,300 and 3,450 dollars per ounce, depending on daily fluctuations and the futures market. Such growth represents one of the strongest geopolitically driven increases in the price of gold in recent decades.

For years, the global capital market has operated on a very delicate balance between monetary policy, debt, and confidence. The war with Iran is not merely a regional issue of the Middle East. It directly affects the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy arteries, through which a massive percentage of global oil and liquefied gas trade passes. Any serious disruption in that area automatically creates fears of energy instability, rising inflation, and potential disturbances in international supply chains. In such an environment, capital instinctively flees risky instruments and moves into gold.

What is particularly interesting, however, is the fact that the rise in gold prices was at certain moments accompanied by highly unusual behavior from large institutional investors. While physical gold experienced increased demand, some major funds simultaneously opened significant short positions on the futures market. Such a situation creates the impression of coordinated attempts to control prices or at least soften their sudden rise. Some analysts believe that certain central banks and major financial systems have an interest in preventing excessively aggressive growth in gold prices, because historically gold represents a kind of indicator of distrust toward fiat currencies and government bonds.

Particular attention has also been drawn to the fact that some countries rapidly increased purchases of physical gold precisely in the period immediately before the more serious military escalations. China, Russia, and several Gulf countries have been continuously increasing their gold reserves in recent years, reducing dependence on the US dollar. The war with Iran has further strengthened the narrative of the gradual de-dollarization of the global economy. When confidence in the global monetary system begins to weaken, gold is no longer merely an investment — it becomes a geopolitical instrument of protection.

The behavior of silver and platinum markets has also been interesting, as they did not follow gold with the same intensity. Such divergence often indicates that the gold market is currently driven not by classic industrial logic, but predominantly by psychological factors and fear. In other words, investors are not buying gold because they believe in its industrial use, but because they seek protection from potential financial shocks.

An additional cause for concern is the increase in transportation and insurance costs for shipments of precious metals. Some international logistics companies have reportedly increased insurance premiums for transporting gold through certain routes connected to the Middle East. Although such information has not yet been fully confirmed through official reports, the rumors themselves are generating additional psychological pressure on the market.

For the countries of the Balkan region, this issue carries a special dimension. Traditional distrust among citizens toward financial institutions often leads to increased purchases of physical gold during periods of global crises. However, it should be kept in mind that the sudden entry of a large number of small investors into the gold market has historically often occurred precisely at moments when major players begin taking profits. Therefore, serious caution, rational assessment, and an understanding of the broader geopolitical picture are essential.

If the conflict with Iran continues to escalate, or if more serious disruptions occur in the energy sector, gold could continue rising and further confirm its role as a global protective instrument. However, it is equally possible that financial centers may attempt to stabilize the market through monetary interventions, coordinated central bank actions, or the manipulation of investor expectations through controlled media narratives.

One thing is certain — the gold market is no longer speaking only about metal. It is speaking about fear, geopolitics, energy, trust in governments, and the possible redefinition of the global financial order.

AK Stevanović and StandardPrva, together with the accounting division StandardBiro, closely monitor market developments and advise clients on investments in diversified portfolios designed to provide stable returns.